Recent Megafires Provide a Tipping Point for Desertification of Conifer Ecosystems

Abstract

Recent megafires and gigafires are contributing to the desertification of conifer forest ecosystems due to their size and severity. Megafires have been increasing in their frequency in the past two decades of the 21st century. They are classed as such because of being 40,469 to 404,694 ha in size, having high complexity, resisting suppression, and producing desertification due to erosion and vegetation type conversion. Increasingly, gigafires (>404,694 ha) are impacting coniferous forest ecosystems. These were once thought of as only pre-20th century phenomena when fire suppression was in its infancy. Climate change is an insidious inciting factor in large wildfire occurrences. Fire seasons are longer, drier, hotter, and windier due to changes in basic meteorology. Conifer forests have accumulated high fuel loads in the 20th and 21st centuries. Ignition sources in conifer forests have increased as well due to human activities, economic development, and population demographics. Natural ignitions from lightning are increasing as a result of greater severe thunderstorm activity. Drought has predisposed these forests to easy fire ignition and spread. Wildfires are more likely to produce vegetation shifts from conifers to scrublands or grasslands, especially when wildfires occur with higher frequency and severity. Severe erosion after megafires has the collateral damage of reducing conifer resilience and sustainability.