Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments

Abstract

The risks assessment is described by the action of estimating the probability distribution functions of possible successes or failures of a system during a given prediction period. Typical probabilistic predictive models and methods for solving risks prediction problems are described, and their classification is given. Priority development directions for risks prediction in standard system processes and their implementation procedures are proposed. The reported examples demonstrate the effects and interpretation of the predictive results obtained. Notes: 1. System is a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes (according to ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 “Systems and software engineering—System life cycle processes”). 2. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives considering consequences. An effect is a deviation from the expected — positive and/or negative (according to ISO Guide 73).