Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Static Equipment Integrity

Abstract

The mechanical integrity of batch-produced machinery is successfully safeguarded using online condition monitoring and reliability theory principles. However, the integrity of nonreplaceable static equipment (pressure vessels, cranes, bridges, and other critical infrastructure) is still widely assured and managed using basic equations (e.g., safety factors and design loads), with no or little regard to the probabilistic nature of their operational damage. The gap between the deterministic “remnant life” assumptions and the probabilistic reality restrains the implementation of new asset integrity technologies (advanced condition monitoring and asset management) because these novel tools are not supported by a numeric cost/benefit analysis in many practical cases. The latter is impossible to implement confidently, while the probability of failure (PoF) versus time remains unquantified. The solution to this problem is holistic and logical: individual equipment integrity analysis now needs to be upgraded to the probabilistic terms at all the stages of life. Even well-known asset integrity technologies can help achieve this goal, providing that they are considered and utilized from the standpoint of harmonizing and aligning their outputs with risk owner’s actual decision-making. This chapter shows real-life case studies to briefly illustrate how the existing integrity engineering tools can be advanced via further PoF considerations, in order to provide the outputs needed for a cost/benefit-based confident and compliant risk control.