Forecast of Catastrophic Floods Based on Hydrodynamic Modeling: The 2013 Flood on the Amur River Case Study

Author:

Buber Alexander,Bolgov Mikhail

Abstract

In 2013, a catastrophic flood occurred on the Amur River, caused by heavy rainfall throughout almost the entire basin. The floodplains of Blagoveshchensk, Khabarovsk, and Komsomolsk-on-Amur were flooded. Similar hydrological phenomena on the Amur occurred earlier (1954, 1972, and 1984), but they did not lead to catastrophic flooding. In the proposed manuscript, the authors investigated three issues: the causes of the 2013 flood, advanced hydrological forecast, and measures to prevent catastrophic flooding. For research, a hydrodynamic model of the Amur River section from Blagoveshchensk to the mouth was developed. Based on the analysis of model calculations, it was shown that some flood problems arose due to the construction of hydraulic structures in recent years (protective dams, bridges, and embankments) and a medium-term forecast scheme proposed.

Publisher

IntechOpen

Reference18 articles.

1. Boikova KG. Floods on the Amur Basin Rivers, Voprosy Geografii Dal’nego Vostoka, Issue 5. Khabarovsk: Khab. Kn. Izd-vo; 1963. pp. 192-259. [in Russian]

2. Kim VI. The conditions for flood generation within the Amur River Basin. In: Voronov BA, Makhinov AN, editors. Research into Water and Ecological Problems of the Amur Region. Khabarovsk: Dal’nauka; 1999. pp. 66-69. [in Russian]

3. Dugina IO, Yavkina EN, Ageeva SA, Bol’sheshapova OV, Dunaeva IM, Efremova NF, et al. An Outstanding Flood on the Amur River in 2003 and its Characteristics, Abstract Book of the Plenary Meeting of the Seventh All-Russian Hydrological Congress; November 19-21, 2013, St. Petersburg. Vol. 2013. St. Petersburg: Rosgidromet; 2013. pp. 22-25 [in Russian]

4. Frolov AV, Georgievskii VY. The extreme flood event of 2013 within the Amur River basin. In: Proc. Joint Meeting on “Extreme Floods within the Amur River Basin: Causes, Forecasts, Recommendations”; January 20, 2014, Moscow. Moscow: Izd-vo NITs “Planeta”; 2014. pp. 5-39 [in Russian]

5. Bolgov MV, Alekseevskii NI, Gartsman BI, Georgievskii VY, Dugina IO, Makhinov AN, et al. The 2013 extreme flood within the Amur basin: Analysis of flood formation, assessments and recommendations. Geography and Natural Resources. 2015;(3):225-233. DOI: 10.1134/S1875372815030026

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