Towards the 1.5°C Climate Scenario: Global Emissions Reduction Commitment Simulation and the Way Forward

Abstract

This work presents an analysis of the impact of nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement on global temperature rise. With the use of a climate simulation tool based on the concept of system dynamics, the study constructs a framework to project global temperature changes under other policy scenarios. The hypothesis is formulated based on the analysis of current, announced and best-case global/national policy scenarios. The research aims to address critical questions regarding the effectiveness of the ongoing NDC commitments in limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, in alignment with the Paris Agreement’s goals. The simulation results offer a roadmap by presenting possible grey areas for optimising the current NDCs in global and national energy policies and treaties, fostering international collaboration and reinforcing the global commitment to combating climate change. In addition, this study also presents other potential strategies for decarbonisation associated with facilitating the implementation of just and fair NDCs.