Predicting Trends, Seasonal Effects, and Future Yields in Cow’s Milk through Time Series Analysis

Abstract

A dairy is a place that is used for handling milk and milk products. Dairy products are basically based on milk. Milk is used to prepare dairy products, such as butter, cheese, and milk powder. There is always a great demand for milk and milk products among people. This study attempted to investigate the trends in the actual yield of cow’s milk production at Andassa dairy farm. We used secondary data for the study of the daily milk production of cows at Andassa dairy farm. The specific objectives of the study were—to identify whether the milk production is time-dependent or not; to predict in which season the milk production is high or low; to examine the daily trend analysis of milk production; to fit the appropriate model; and to forecast the milk production for the future. The study was conducted based on quantitative variables. So, the dependent variable is the average daily milk, and the independent variable is the time measure at which milk production is measured each day. The study used both descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze the data that were collected from the dairy farms in the sector. This study covered a total of 179 days of milk production. The results reveal that the milk yield of cows is declining, and that milk output is time-dependent, according to the time series plot, and that the model is ARIMA.