The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru

Abstract

Background Syphilis incidence worldwide has rebounded since 2000, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A predictive model for syphilis infection may inform prevention counselling and use of chemoprophylaxis. Methods: Data from a longitudinal cohort study of MSM and transgender women meeting high-risk criteria for syphilis who were followed quarterly for 2 years were analysed. Incidence was defined as a four-fold increase in rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titres or new RPR reactivity if two prior titres were non-reactive. Generalised estimating equations were used to calculate rate ratios (RR) and develop a predictive model for 70% of the dataset, which was then validated in the remaining 30%. An online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis was also developed. Results: Among 361 participants, 22.0% were transgender women and 34.6% were HIV-infected at baseline. Syphilis incidence was 19.9 cases per 100-person years (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.3–24.3). HIV infection (RR 2.22; 95% CI 1.54–3.21) and history of syphilis infection (RR 2.23; 95% 1.62–3.64) were significantly associated with incident infection. The final predictive model for syphilis incidence in the next 3 months included HIV infection, history of syphilis, number of male sex partners and sex role for anal sex in the past 3 months, and had an area under the curve of 69%. The online syphilis risk calculator based on those results is available at: www.syphrisk.net. Conclusions: Using data from a longitudinal cohort study among a population at high risk for syphilis infection in Peru, we developed a predictive model and online risk calculator for future syphilis infection. The predictive model for future syphilis developed in this study has a moderate predictive accuracy and may serve as the foundation for future studies.