Author:
Sutherst Robert W.,Collyer Ben S.,Yonow Tania
Abstract
The vulnerability of horticultural industries in Australia to the Queensland
fruit fly Bactrocera (Dacus)
tryoni under climate change is examined. Vulnerability
is defined in terms of sensitivity and adaptation options. Regional estimates
of fruit fly density are fed into an economic model that takes account of
costs of damage, management, regulation and research. Sensitivity analyses are
used to estimate potential future costs under climate change by recalculating
costs with increases in temperature of 0.5˚C, 1.0˚C and 2˚C. It
is assumed that irrigation will automatically compensate for any changes in
rainfall.
The current national, annual cost of Queensland fruit fly is estimated to be
$AU28.5 million/year ($25.7–49.9 million), with
60% of the cost borne by commercial growers. Climatic warming threatens
the sustainability of area freedom in the Fruit Fly Exclusion Zone (FFEZ) and
is likely to increase damage and control costs to commercial growers in
endemic areas, except in northern Australia. Costs to mainland apple, orange,
and pear growers are estimated to increase by $3.1, $4.7, and
$12.0 million with increases of 0.5˚C, 1.0˚C, and 2˚C,
respectively. These represent increases of 25%, 38%, and
95%, respectively, but do not reflect the greatly increased risks of
failure to maintain area freedom in the FFEZ. Growers in endemic Queensland
fruit fly areas can expect their costs to increase 42–82%,
compared with 24–83% in the FFEZ. Increased damage to backyard
growers is likely, especially in South Australia and Victoria. Thus the fly
poses a real threat to southern States under modest projected increases in
temperatures. The extent of the likely cost increases raises questions about
the industries’ ability to pay and remain competitive.
The current analysis illustrates the potential benefits of taking a national
and strategic approach to the management of insect pests in Australia. A
combination of CLIMEX modelling, sensitivity analysis and mapping provided
valuable insights into both industry and regional vulnerabilities. Adaptation
options require further quantification, but that awaits a credible population
model of Queensland fruit fly. Costs need to be discounted, depending on the
expected timing of the temperature increases.
Subject
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Cited by
116 articles.
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