Characteristics of frost in a major wheat-growing region of Australia

Abstract

Frost at anthesis of wheat reduces grain set. Characteristics of frost in a large section of the wheat belt of one Australian state (N.S.W.) are described. Using cluster analysis, the region can be divided into four homogeneous areas according to five general characteristics of frost These characteristics are the mean Julian day of first and last frost, the mean number of frost days, the proportion of single-day frosts (days on which a frost did not occur on the following day) from August to October and the proportion of frost free periods from August to October of less than 5 days' duration. All these characteristics were found to,be closely related to altitude in all areas, but not to latitude or longitude. Within each area, regression equations were developed which explained at least 87% of the variation in four of the general characteristics. Thus, altitude appears to be a useful predictor for these characteristics. The validity of each equation was tested using three independent data sets. The mean percentage errors for the mean Julian day of first and last frost and the proportion of single-day frosts from August to October were 5, 5 and 8% respectively. Errors for the mean number of frost days and proportion of frost free periods from August to October of less than 5 days duration were approximately 7% for one site and approximately 20% for two other sites. The characteristics of frost in the period in which most winter crops flower are also described. The characteristics are the mean date of last heavy frost and last frost, and frost spells in each of August, September and October. In order to minimize risk from frost during anthesis and from high temperature and water stress during grain filling, this analysis suggests that anthesis should occur in early/mid September, late September/early October and early/mid October for the western, central and eastern parts of the region respectively. For areas in the north-eastern and south-eastern parts that are above 500 m, anthesis should occur mid/late October and early/mid November respectively. These analytical findings are consistent with field studies on wheat. A weak negative correlation between the first and the last frost is present in most of the sites of the region. This suggests that if in any particular year the first frost occurs earlier than its long-term mean, then the last frost tends to occur later than its long-term mean.