Implications of climate change on long-lead forecasting and global agriculture

Abstract

Variations in crop yields and agricultural productivity are strongly influenced by fluctuations in seasonal weather conditions during the growing season. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and other similar ocean/atmosphere teleconnections in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, contribute to extreme weather events and climatic variability. As seasonal forecasting skills improve with greater knowledge of these teleconnections and improved Global Circulation Models (GCMs), farmers and agricultural planners will be able to make better use of long-lead forecasts for strategic decisions in agriculture. Issues related to climate variability and climate change pose significant risks to agriculture as the frequency of natural disasters tends to increase worldwide.