A framework for defining fire danger to support fire management operations in Australia†

Abstract

Background Development of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System began in 2017 with a project aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of a new fire danger rating system through a Research Prototype (AFDRSRP) that accounted for variability in Australian vegetation types, was nationally applicable, modular and open to continuous improvement. Aims In this manuscript, we identify and define transition points and categories for the AFDRSRP. We discuss user responses to the categorisation during a live trial evaluation of the AFDRSRP and reflect on limitations and potential improvements. Methods A review of available literature, broad consultation with stakeholders and reanalysis of fire impact data were used to determine suitable thresholds for categorising fire danger within the AFDRSRP. Key results Fire danger categories within the AFDRSRP reflect transitions in fire behaviour that result in application of different fire management strategies or are associated with variation in serious consequences and impacts. Conclusions The AFDRSRP incorporated the best available science, supported by a well-defined framework for categorising and defining fire danger making it suitable for application across Australian fire jurisdictions and range of fuel types. Implications The framework allows fire managers to assess the accuracy and appropriateness of forecasted fire danger.