Long-term dynamics of rodent populations in arid Australia: the influence of rainfall

Abstract

Populations of rodents were studied for periods of 7−9 years at each of three sites in arid Australia. All species fluctuated dramatically in abundance, being absent or in low numbers during droughts but erupting after significant rainfall. Strong correlations were obtained between capture rates and cumulative monthly rainfall residuals, with time lags, that had been modified by an exponential decay function to model the post-rain depletion of resources. The introduced Mus domesticus erupted within only two months of exceptional rainfall at one site, whereas the native rodents Notomys alexis, Pseudomys hermannsburgensis and P. desertor generally responded 3Œ10 months after rain. The faster response of M. domesticus reflects its high reproductive potential compared with the native rodents, and perhaps greater immigration. Differences in magnitudes and delays in response to rainfall among the native species were due probably to differences in initial population sizes and times available for response and, for P. desertor, to between-site differences in the quality or quantity of food resources. Population declines in all species during dry periods probably followed resource shortages. Despite the usually strong linkage between rainfall and population dynamics, rain failed to trigger population responses in rodents for prolonged periods at two of the sites, and was not clearly associated with an eruption of P. hermannsburgensis at the third. The lack of a population response at one site was attributed to predation, but events at the other two remain unexplained. We conclude that long-term studies should play an important role in describing temporal changes in rodent populations in arid Australia and, with field experiments, in evaluating how rainfall and other factors combine to effect the changes.