Predicting the current and future suitable-habitat distribution of tropical adult and juvenile targeted fishes in multi-sector fisheries of central Queensland, Australia

Author:

Chamberlain Debbie A.ORCID,Possingham Hugh P.,Phinn Stuart R.

Abstract

Context Coastal and estuarine finfish species are responding to human-induced climate change by altering their distributions. In tropical regions, the species mostly affected by warming have limited acclimation capacity or live close to their upper thermal limits. Consequently, coastal fish assemblages may dramatically contract in range, experience declining population abundance or local extinction. Aim Here we use two different predictive modelling techniques that cope with non-linear empirical relationships between responses and environmental predictors to investigate distribution change. Methods The habitat-suitability models we use are the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the generalised additive model (GAM). We built the models for the period 2004–2019 with environmental data relevant to coastal systems. We incorporated climate change at current conditions, near future (2015–2054) and distant future (2055–2100) from CMIP6 climate models. Key results We identified bathymetry and sea-surface temperature to be key variables explaining the current and future distribution of coastal finfish and elasmobranchs of the Great Barrier Reef coast in central Queensland. Conclusions We showed how the distributions of valuable fisheries species will change under future warming conditions. Implications The objective is to inform fisheries management supporting the restructure of existing fisheries or the development of new resources for the dual purposes of conservation and food security.

Publisher

CSIRO Publishing

Subject

Ecology,Aquatic Science,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics,Oceanography

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3