Potential expansion of Hass avocado cultivation under climate change scenarios threatens Mexican mountain ecosystems

Abstract

Analysis of potential areas for crop establishment is necessary for sustainable agricultural planning, conservation of natural ecosystems, and achievement of food security’s current global objective. This study aims to model the current potential distribution of the optimal areas for Hass avocado crop in Mexico, along with the likely impact of climate change on the crops and the surrounding mountain ecosystems in the state of Michoacán, the principal producer. The maximum entropy approach was used to model the current and future potential distribution of the avocado using points of presence of avocado cultivation in Mexico and climatic variables under 10 global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the IPCC. We estimated a current potential area for the establishment of Hass avocado crops in Mexico of 54597 km2, associated with the temperate forests of the Transversal Volcanic Belt and the Sierra Madre del Sur. The loss of area for the establishment of avocado crops in Mexico was 31.1% under the most optimistic scenario, RCP 2.6, whereas 43.0% would be lost under the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5. Currently, the potential distribution for the establishment of Hass avocado crops in the state of Michoacán is 22561 km2. Given optimistic scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 of climate change by 2050, temperate forests mountain would represent 59 and 72.3%, respectively, of the potential area for establishing avocado in the state. Commercial pressure and climate change can lead to forest mountain ecosystem deforestation to establish new avocado crops and exacerbate water resource scarcity problems, jeopardising the entire production system’s sustainability. Territorial planning should prioritise conservation policies to avoid land-use change and establish strategies to maintain avocado crop sustainability in the long-term under climate change scenarios.