A comprehensive approach to assessing the future persistence of the endangered rainforest tree, Macadamia jansenii (Proteaceae) and the impact of fire

Abstract

The Endangered Macadamia jansenii (C.L. Gross & P.H. Western, 1992) was known only from one small populationand a reintroduction program was implemented from 2009 to increase the number of populations. Recently, new subpopulations were discovered. However, in 2019, fire directly affected M. jansenii and the surrounding habitat. This study aimed to examine the abundance and distribution of M. jansenii in the wild pre- and post-fire, as well as to assess the success of the reintroduction program and species population viability. We undertook genetic analysis, population viability analysis (PVA) and updated the existing habitat models. The known wild M. jansenii population increased in abundance from 59 in a single population to 200 individuals (including seedlings), across three subpopulations. Results from the post-fire survey suggest that 83% of the wild plants have survived, with many plants resprouting. The newly discovered subpopulations were within predicted suitable habitat in the Bulburin National Park. These subpopulations are genetically similar to the original known population. Novel alleles suggest the potential for more plants to be located. The reintroduction program successfully established 20 individuals. PVA results indicate that even with the effects of fire, the species is unlikely to become extinct in the next 150 years.