Forecasting Ro-Ro Freight Transportation Demand at Samsun Port: A Hybrid Method Approach

Abstract

Türkiye's extensive coastline and geopolitics position necessitates the importance of Ro-Ro transportation with neighbouring countries. Türkiye's rapidly growing Ro-Ro transportation significantly contributes to imports and exports, which is of great importance to the national economy. Samsun Port is one of the most active ports in Türkiye's Ro-Ro transportation sector, operating in the Black Sea region. This study examined Ro-Ro transportation at Samsun Port, and future cargo forecasting was conducted. For this purpose, artificial neural networks and time series analysis methods were combined. Input variables used in the study included the number of Ro-Ro ships arriving at the port between 2009 and 2021, population figures, a specialized CPI indicator (fresh fruits and vegetables), and export values. The output variable was the amount of cargo carried by Ro-Ro ships. According to the results obtained, it was observed that Samsun Port would have sufficient capacity for Ro-Ro transportation in the next 27 months in terms of wharf, port area, and operational space.