Simulation modeling of the strategic development of the higher education system of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Global trends and current problems of the Russian higher education system determine the relevance of the tasks of analyzing and forecasting the long-term development of the Russian higher education system and developing management decisions aimed at its improvement. These tasks can be solved with the help of computer models of the education system, which allow us to study the behavior of a complex system in dynamics, considering the interactions of its elements, lag effects, and feedback loops. Despite the ongoing research in this area, the issue of management decision support tools for the strategic development of the Russian higher education system has not been resolved.The article discusses the issues of simulation modeling of the higher education system of the Russian Federation, considering its interaction with macroeconomic and demographic factors. The proposed set of simulation models of the higher education system is developed using agent-based modeling and system dynamics methods. The functioning of the education system is described at different levels in the proposed set of models: the individual level, the educational institutions level, and the macroeconomic level. The set of models can be used as the basis for tools to support strategic planning of the Russian Federation’s education system development.