Issues of Assessing the Possibilities of Full Import Substitution in the Engineering Industry

Abstract

The article attempts to determine the required investment in the implementation of a possible full import substitution in shipbuilding, space and aviation engineering. Data on the activities of state corporations representing the aircraft industry, the rocket and space industry, shipbuilding, as well as the closely related engine building, are analyzed. The main directions of activities for import substitution and the results as of 2020 are shown, as well as the problems of implementing the import substitution policy in the sectors under consideration under the new sanctions. The methodological basis for calculating the required investments was a simplified modified model of the input-output balance built on the input-output tables for 2019. The authors made an attempt to assess the impact of a potential increase in the volume of mechanical engineering as a result of import substitution and localization in Russia on the output and use of products related to activities and identification of necessary investment resources.The results of the calculations are mainly illustrative, showing the possibility of using input-output tables to analyze and evaluate the consequences of major government decisions.