La sociedad contra las élites: aproximación a las bases sociales del apoyo electoral a Petro en Colombia

Abstract

Objective/Context: One of the effects of the internal war in Colombia was to hinder the expression of the social conflict and of the organizations that mobilize the popular sectors. The plebiscite to ratify the Peace Accord aimed at putting an end to the war was a politically polarized juncture channeled through the electoral process. The shift in the centrality of the issue of the internal war after the signing of the Accord opened the possibility of expression of the social conflict. However, in a country with weak social and political organizations to shape this conflict, it is expressed: 1) without politically aligned framings; 2) as a generalized discontent with the elites and a feeling of “tilted playing field”. Therefore, political polarization after the plebiscite is low. We develop this argument based on the analysis of voters’ positions in relation to the most important issues of the political agenda: Peace Agreement, redistributive agenda (taxes and welfare) and governmental management of the COVID pandemic, and gender agenda. Methodology: The article is based on 16 focus groups conducted between September and November 2021 in three regions of Colombia —Bogotá, Antioquia and the Caribbean— in which voters from the two main 2018 electoral options participated, with gender balance and variation in occupation and between middle and lower classes. Conclusion: The data show that there is no political polarization at the citizen level. Instead, a high level of discontent towards political and economic elites is observed, which may be at the basis of electoral support for Petro in 2022. Originality: The article offers an alternative look at the perception that many Colombians have that they live in a polarized society and contributes to the understanding of electoral support for an “anti-system” force in the 2022 election.