Strategic forecasts of partial equilibrium of the products physical and economic accessibility

Abstract

Abstract. Purpose. Preparation of forecasting models to describe the balance of domestic production and domestic consumption of products, taking into account the new mission of strategic planning of the agri-food sector, related to ensuring physical and economic accessibility at the level of rational consumption rates for every citizen of the country. The implementation of the mission is based on the scientific position on food independence in the process of solving food problems. At the present stage, there is a significant potential for increasing the production and consumption of products per capita to the level of rational norms recommended by the Russian Ministry of Health. The fundamental difficulty in solving the problem is due to the lack of balance between the pace of formation of physical and economic accessibility. Methods. Scientific and theoretical generalization of the simulation capabilities of Western European forecasting models, econometric description of physical accessibility depending on economic accessibility for the main types of products. Information support was a set of all-Russian data on resources and their use by types of products for the period 1990–2021, prepared on the basis of the author's methodology for strategic planning of the food balance. Scientific novelty lies in the development of functional models of partial equilibrium of the agri-food market, showing the dependence of physical accessibility on economic accessibility for the main types of products. Results. The calculation results show that the stimulation of physical accessibility through the formation of economic accessibility will lead to improvement and stabilization of the situation in terms of self-sufficiency of rational consumption rates. The resulting models can be used by the participants of strategic planning and management bodies as tools to support the adoption of strategic decisions to determine the level of formation of the physical availability of products when the level of consumption of rational norms is reached and, on this basis, to make adjustments to the strategic documents for the development of the agro-industrial complex.