State and prospects of the export potential of agriculture in the North Caucasus

Abstract

Abstract. Recently, agriculture has seen a slowdown in growth. The reason for the latter is seen in the peculiar saturation and increase of competition in the domestic market of agri-food products. In this situation, one of the areas and sources of stimulating the growth of agriculture is the development of exports, the search for new foreign markets. The aim is to empirically test the hypothesis of agricultural exports as a factor in the growth of agriculture and the regional economy with the dominant agri-food sector, and to formulate the directions and tools of raising export capacity in agriculture in the North Caucasus. The empirical basis for verification of the provisions is the data of official statistics, systematized in the collections of Rosstat from 2005 to 2017, as well as the sample data of the authors. The methodical basis is a set of statistical, economic and mathematical and descriptive methods that provide analysis of empirical (statistical) data, identification of dynamic and structural trends in agricultural exports to agricultural products North Caucasus and the wording of proposals to ensure efficient use of export potential in agriculture of North Caucasus entities. The article explores the state, dynamic and structural trends in the export and import of food products and agricultural raw materials in the North Caucasus. The novelty of the results: (a) the dependence of agricultural exports on the volume of gross agricultural products, as well as the retail turnover of food products and imports, has been identified, formalized and quantified; (b) The wording of the conclusion on the stimulating role of exports and imports of food and agricultural raw materials on the dynamics of the gross agricultural output of the macro-region, while achieving the limit by other factors (Manufacturing and consumer) growth; (c) proposals to increase the volume and efficiency of food exports and agricultural raw materials in the North Caucasus. The results are new both on the object of the study (agriculture of the North Caucasus) and on the statistics used. In some cases, they confirm previous results of other authors, in others represent new trends in the development of macro and regional agriculture.