The Grand National: a review of factors associated with non-completion and horse-falls, 1990 to 2012

Abstract

The Grand National (GN) attracts high profile press and subsequent public attention. This study aimed to establish if factors influential to non-completion, horse-falls and specific fence risk in the GN supported the measures implemented by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) to improve equine welfare in the GN. Horse, jockey, trainer and race related factors associated with non-completion, horse-falls and horse-falls at specific fences of the GN were collated over a 22 year period from 1990 to 2012. Descriptive analysis calculated non-completion rates per year, according to age and reason for non-completion. The distribution of fallers during the race in relation to fence number, design and key feature fences were also determined. Univariable analysis informed multivariable model building to identify factors associated with non-completion (n=840) and horse-falls (n=514) in the GN. Two final logistic regression models were refined through a backward stepwise process with variables retained if likelihood ratio test P-values were <0.05. Chi-square goodness of fit analyses evaluated fall risk at fence level. During the period investigated 347 horses completed the GN; the probability of a horse falling in the race was 0.24. The first fence, Becher's brook and drop fences increased the risk of falling compared to plain fences. Good-soft going increased the number of horses that completed the race and reduced the number of fallers suggesting this is the optimal ground condition for the race. GNs run at a faster than average speed increased the risk of horses not completing and falling. Inexperienced horses and jockeys show a greater risk of not completing and falling. Our work supports BHA measures implemented to improve safety in the GN; controlling speed, modifying fence design, promoting race experience and ground maintenance to produce good-soft going can increase completions and reduce falls, therefore enhancing equine welfare.