Estimation of Weibull Probability Distribution Parameters with Optimization Algorithms and Foça Wind Data Application

Abstract

In this study, the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function (W.pdf) used in determining the profitability of wind energy projects are estimated using optimization algorithms and the moment method. These parameters are then used to estimate the wind energy potential (WEP) in Foça region of İzmir in Turkey. The values of Weibull parameters obtained using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Sine Cosine Algorithm (SCA), Social Group Optimization (SGO), and Bat Algorithm (BA) were compared with the estimation results of the Moment Method (MM) as reference. Root mean square error (RMSE) and chi-square (χ^2) tests were used to compare the parameter estimation methods. The wind speed measurement values of the observation station in Foça were used. As a result of Foça speed data analysis, the annual average wind speed was determined as 6.15 m/s, and the dominant wind direction was found as northeast. Wind speed frequency distributions were compared with the measurement results and calculated with the estimated parameters. When RMSE and χ^2 criteria are evaluated together; it can be concluded that each used method behaves similarly for the given parameter estimation problem, with minor variations. As a result, it has been found that the optimization parameters produce very good results in wind speed distribution and potential calculations.