The Uses of Dynamic Earthquake Triggering

Abstract

Dynamic triggering of earthquakes by seismic waves is a robustly observed phenomenon with well-documented examples from over 30 major earthquakes. We are now in a position to use dynamic triggering as a natural experiment to probe the reaction of faults to the known stresses from seismic waves. We show here that dynamic triggering can be used to investigate the distribution of stresses required for failure on faults. In some regions, faults appear to be uniformly distributed over their loading cycles with equal numbers at all possible stresses from failure. Regions under tectonic extension, at the interface between locked and creeping faults, or subject to anthropogenic forcing are most prone to triggered failure. Predictions of future seismicity rates based on seismic wave amplitudes are theoretically possible and may provide similar results to purely stochastic prediction schemes. The underlying mechanisms of dynamic triggering are still unknown. The prolonged triggered sequences require a multistage process such as shear failure from rate-state friction coupled to aseismic creep or continued triggering through a secondary cascade. Permeability enhancement leading to drainage or pore pressure redistribution on faults is an alternative possibility.