The Diversity of Large Earthquakes and Its Implications for Hazard Mitigation

Abstract

With the advent of broadband seismology and GPS, significant diversity in the source radiation spectra of large earthquakes has been clearly demonstrated. This diversity requires different approaches to mitigate hazards. In certain tectonic environments, seismologists can forecast the future occurrence of large earthquakes within a solid scientific framework using the results from seismology and GPS. Such forecasts are critically important for long-term hazard mitigation practices, but because stochastic fracture processes are complex, the forecasts are inevitably subject to large uncertainty, and unexpected events will continue to surprise seismologists. Recent developments in real-time seismology will help seismologists to cope with and prepare for tsunamis and earthquakes. Combining a better understanding of earthquake diversity with modern technology is the key to effective and comprehensive hazard mitigation practices.