Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics

Author:

Bouguen Adrien1,Huang Yue1,Kremer Michael23,Miguel Edward34

Affiliation:

1. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;,

2. Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA;

3. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA

4. Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

Abstract

We assess evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data; improved participant tracking methods; alternative research designs; and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.

Publisher

Annual Reviews

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

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