Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination

Abstract

The target for TB elimination is to reduce annual incidence to less than one case per million population by 2050. Meeting that target requires a 1,000-fold reduction in incidence in little more than 35 years. This can be achieved only by combining the effective treatment of active TB—early case detection and high cure rates to interrupt transmission—with methods to prevent new infections and to neutralize existing latent infections. Vigorous implementation of the WHO Stop TB Strategy is needed to achieve the former, facilitated by the effective supply of, and demand for, health services. The latter calls for new technology, including biomarkers of TB risk, diagnostics, drugs, and vaccines. An important milestone en route to elimination will be reached when there is less than 1 TB death per 100,000 population, marking entry into the elimination phase. This landmark can be reached by many countries within 1–2 decades.