1. Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA;
2. McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057, USA;
3. Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, King's College London, London WC2B 4BG, United Kingdom;
4. Current affiliation: Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1JD, United Kingdom;