Selection Neglect and Political Beliefs

Abstract

Individuals, including researchers, often have to form beliefs about the political world from nonrepresentative samples—e.g., their friends, what they see on TV, or content on social media. Substantial evidence indicates that many struggle to account for this selection problem and generally form beliefs as if what they observe is representative. In this review, we provide a formal typology of how this phenomenon of selection neglect affects political beliefs. We identify three types of selection neglect: homophily leads individuals to believe others’ traits and beliefs are closer to their own; the squeaky wheel effect biases beliefs toward more visible or vocal groups; and the man bites dog effect leads to excessive belief in extreme or unusual events. Selection neglect is a unifying way to understand disparate literatures on perceptions of the economy and demographics, beliefs about others’ beliefs, partisan media, and social media. Much empirical research is consistent with biased beliefs driven by selection neglect but rarely directly tests this mechanism outside of lab settings. We discuss how future research can provide more direct evidence.