IMPACT OF SURFACE CURRENTS ON VARIATIONS IN LEVELS AND MEAN ICE THICKNESS OF THE ARCTIC SEAS

Abstract

The impact of surface currents on variations in levels and mean ice thickness of the Arctic seas is considered in the paper. On the example of sites of the Greenland Sea and the Baffin Sea water areas, the hypothesis of a significant correlation between changes in the topography of the water surface and the average ice thickness in areas under the influence of warm and cold surface currents is tested. Similar, although less expressed, patterns of currents also take place in other Arctic seas, including the Barents and Kara seas, which are characterized by intensive navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route. The results of the GLORYS12v1 reanalysis, available for every day of a period of more than 10 years with a coordinate step of 5 arc minutes, are used as initial data on the water surface level and mean ice thickness in the study area. For each node of the coordinate grid for the months from November to March, time series of data on the average monthly values of the indicated characteristics are formed. It has been established that at the sites through which warm currents pass, carrying more saline water, such a correlation exists in most areas and it is negative. At the sites through which cold currents pass, carrying water with lower salinity, the correlation of the same processes can be significant and positive. It is assumed that the identified patterns are also manifested in other areas of the Arctic seas with similar currents systems, including those located along the Northern Sea Route and characterized by active navigation. The expediency of taking into account sea level changes in such areas in the course of medium- and long-term forecasting of the average ice thickness in them in order to plan year-round navigation, including during the most difficult winter-spring navigation period, is noted.