The use of phase diagrams when choosing optimal routes in the waters of the Northern Sea Route

Abstract

A method for choosing optimal shipping routes using phase diagrams is developed in the paper. The topic and purpose of the study is directly related to the tasks, the implementation of which is provided for by the Plan of the Northern Sea Route Development, approved by the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on August 1, 2022, confirmed by the financing program for the development and implementation of the digital platform of the Northern Sea Route, approved by the Government in mid-January 2023. The assessment of the current state of the shipping routes network, navigation, hydrographic and hydro meteorological support is given. The use of the method of multi-criteria evaluation of alternative routes based on a variety of safety criteria depending on the depths, ice conditions, tightness of the water area and hydrographic study of the bottom relief is justified. The dependence of the safety criteria on the draft of the vessel, its icebreaking ability and maneuverable elements is established. A method of comparative assessment of shipping routes for settlement vessels according to four main criteria has been developed. A scheme for calculating quantitative safety indicators is proposed. A procedure for normalizing indicators has been developed. A three-level scale for assessing the safety of shipping routes has been introduced. A methodology for ranking shipping routes and culling the routes assessed as dangerous and forming a set of routes assessed as safe is proposed. The method was tested using a model of the passage of an Arc4 ice category vessel with a draft of 9 m along eight alternative routes of the East Siberian Sea. A set of phase diagrams of alternative routes constructed according to pairs of basic safety criteria is presented. The states of routes are analyzed with the application of the Pareto efficient solution rule to the selection of optimal routes. It is noted that the use of phase diagrams can be extended to a larger number of indicators affecting the efficiency and safety of vessels navigation. Recommendations on the use of the developed method are given. The main directions of further research are determined.