Current trends of dangerous winds frequency variation in the western sector of the Russian Arctic in winter-spring period

Abstract

The current trends in interannual changes in the frequency of winds that pose a danger to navigation on shipping routes of the Barents and Kara Seas in the winter-spring months are identified in the paper. Winds are considered dangerous if their average hourly speed over the water surface exceeds 15 m/s. The factual material is based on information from the ERA5 global reanalysis. The research methodology involves the use of standard methods of mathematical statistics. Trends are assessed for the time periods of 2001–2021 and 2010–2021. The study has allowed us to identify the water areas of the Barents Sea, where in December, January, April and May, significant rising trends in the frequency of dangerous winds are presented. No similar trends during the months of the winter-spring navigation period are found in the water areas of the Kara Sea in the modern period. It has been established that in December storm risks exhibit rising trends on the waterways of the Barents Sea passing north of Cape Zhelaniya. At the same time, in the area of the Kara Strait and its approaches, the tendencies of changes in the frequency of dangerous winds are more favorable. In January, the wind regime in this strait, on the contrary, has a clear tendency to worsen. The persistence of the identified trends in the region under consideration in the future is not guaranteed. Therefore, further development of its observation network remains an urgent problem of hydrometeorological provision of navigation in the Barents and Kara seas.