Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices

Author:

Skinner Patrick S.1,Wilson Katie A.2,Matilla Brian C.3,Roberts Brett4,Yussouf Nusrat1,Burke Patrick5,HeinseIman Pamela L.6,Gallo Burkely T.7,Jones Thomas A.1,Knopfmeier Kent H.1,Flora Montgomery L.1,Martin Joshua1,Guerra Jorge E.8,Lindley T. Todd9,Gravelle Chad10,Bieda III Stephen W.11

Affiliation:

1. Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma

2. The RAND Corporation, Chicago, Illinois

3. NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

4. CoreLogic Inc., Irvine, California

5. NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory

6. NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma

7. USAF, 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt AFB, Nebraska

8. Project Canary, Denver, Colorado

9. NOAA/National Weather Service, Norman, Oklahoma

10. NOAA/National Weather Service, Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, Texas

11. NOAA/National Weather Service Headquarters, Silver Spring, Maryland

Abstract

The Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system designed to primarily provide guidance on thunderstorm hazards from the meso-beta to storm-scale in space and from several hours to less than one hour in time. This article describes unique aspects of WoFS guidance product design and application to short-term severe weather forecasting. General probabilistic forecasting concepts for convection allowing ensembles, including the use of neighborhood, probability of exceedance, percentile, and paintball products, are reviewed, and the design of real-time WoFS guidance products is described. Recommendations for effectively using WoFS guidance for severe weather prediction include evaluation of the quality of WoFS storm-scale analyses, interrogating multiple probabilistic guidance products to efficiently span the envelope of guidance provided by ensemble members, and application of conceptual models of convective storm dynamics and interaction with the broader mesoscale environment. Part II of this study provides specific examples where WoFS guidance can provide useful or potentially misleading guidance on convective storm likelihood and evolution.

Publisher

National Weather Association

Subject

Management Science and Operations Research,Atmospheric Science,Computers in Earth Sciences

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