Effects of Internal Forced Displacement on Crime: Evidence from Colombia

Abstract

Internal forced displacement, a consequence of territorial control strategies by armed groups, has resulted in profound socioeconomic challenges for receiving areas. Approximately eight million people have been affected in Colombia, where internal conflict and criminal networks have prevailed for over five decades. This paper explores the relationship between internal forced migration and crime rates in Colombian municipalities from 2003 to 2016, focusing on spatial dynamics. The study utilizes a spatial panel model and considers five crime categories: homicides, kidnapping, personal injuries, automobile theft, and residential burglary. The results reveal significant associations between forced displacement and certain types of crime, highlighting the importance of spatial analysis in understanding the interaction between migration and crime. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers, facilitating informed policy interventions and community initiatives to address the repercussions of internal migration on crime dynamics.