Effect of Meteorological Factors on Maize Yield in Comoros

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climatic factors on maize yield will benefit tactical decisions for future agricultural forecasting. In this study, the relationship between maize yield and meteorological factors has been estimated on the basis of daily meteorological data during the growing season and maize yield observation data from 1970 to 2022 on the island of Nguazidja. The specific maize growth stages most sensitive to meteorological factors were divided into six stages: emergence, jointing, tasseling, flowering, filling and harvesting. First, a simple regression is carried out with the tendency model. Yield and years are included. We then analysed the effect of meteorological factors on each stage of maize growth using the orthogonal Chebyshev polynomial regression. It was found that rainfall has a generally positive influence on yield growth. Temperature has a significant negative effect on yield during the emergence and filling stages. The key point is that meteorological factors have an effect on maize yield throughout the growth season. The degree of impact of each meteorological factor during the growing season is not the same. The first step is to understand that maize needs higher temperatures, especially during the emergence period. On the other hand, rainfall sometimes provides more water than is needed. The aim of this research is to provide clear information on the impact of climatic factors on maize yields. This is a study that has not yet been carried out in the country. And the results are important for forecasting maize yields in the Comoros.