The Influence Research of Sino-US Trade Friction on the Development Pattern of Shandong Manufacturing Industry Based on the Improved Trade Gravity Model

Abstract

Under the current background of globalization, a series of measures taken by the United States against China are bound to have a certain negative impact on domestic trade-sensitive industries and the transformation of old and new drivers of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province. We use the second industry in Shandong province from 2008 to 2019, U.S. gross domestic product, GDP in Shandong province exports to the United States trade, RMB exchange rate against the dollar, such as data, with the introduction of TBT notification number (trade friction variable T), multiple linear regression, in Shandong province under the background of building trade friction improved manufacturing kinetic energy conversion between the old and the new trade gravity model, Based on this model, the influence of trade friction on the transformation of old and new driving forces in the garment, mechanical and electrical export manufacturing industries in Shandong Province in the next 10 years (2021-2030) is predicted and analyzed. The predicted development trend is in line with the statistical law. The results show that the Sino-US trade friction has a serious impact on the transformation of the old and new kinetic energy, increases the production cost and reduces the scale of foreign investment in the manufacturing industry in Shandong province. Finally, from four aspects of improving the ecological chain of export manufacturing industry, vigorously developing the green environmental protection industry, establishing and perfecting the trade early warning mechanism, and rationally utilizing WTO rules, the measures and suggestions for Shandong’s manufacturing industry to deal with the Sino-US trade frictions are put forward.