New census: Old problem: Continuation of negative demographic trends in Serbia

Abstract

Given the initial results of the 2022 Population, Household, and Housing Census, the question is not whether the demographic situation in Serbia is bad, but how bad it is. Serbia has been struggling with depopulation and other demographic problems for decades, which, while not surprising, worries us. At first glance, there are no positive indicators, but some isolated areas can be identified that are characterized by somewhat more favorable demographic trends, but this should be taken with a grain of salt. The objective of this paper is to look at and analyze the municipalities that have been most affected by the decline in total population between the last two censuses. This is done by analyzing the most threatened municipalities by examining the relationship between depopulation and the eleven parameters presented. Since the municipalities are very diverse in terms of population size, a percentage rather than an absolute decrease has been considered. Since depopulation occupies a significant place at the top of Serbia's demographic problems, the method of correlation and multiple regression is used to create a model that can be used to predict, to some extent, the future state of the most threatened parts of Serbia.