The method of destructive scenario forecasting for the development of divergent thinking of managers

Abstract

The phenomenon of thinking is well studied in psychology, and many of its types are revealed. However, little attention is paid to the development of divergent thinking in general and the development of divergent thinking of managers in particular. At the same time, multidirectional management decisions, their prompt adoption and the originality of content are very necessary for enterprises. The aim of the article is to give the characteristic of divergent thinking, to note its features and to present own definition of the concept “divergent thinking of managers”. In the article the analysis of one of the functions of managers, that is forecasting, is described. The scenario method and a new method of destructive scenario forecasting are proposed. The algorithm of the last method application in the form of a technological map is shown. The result of using the method for 2 years on specialized programs of professional development and retraining of managers is described. The results of mathematical processing of the obtained data on diagnostic procedures are presented. They testify that in the experimental groups the development of qualitative characteristics of divergent thinking of managers proceeded more intensively than in the control ones, in which the method of destructive scenario forecasting was not used. That proves the effectiveness of the proposed method for the development of divergent thinking of managers.