Climate change as the driving force behind the intensification of agricultural land use

Abstract

Climate change in Europe will lead to new precipitation patterns over the coming years and the annual temperature will increase significantly. These changes in climate variables and the resulting effects on agricultural productivity must be differentiated regionally. Plant production depends on sufficient rainfall in summer and, in some regions, on the amount of rainfall in winter. In Central Europe, the amount of precipitation in summer will decrease in the coming decades due to climate change, while in some regions, the amount of winter precipitation will increase significantly. Agricultural production is likely to suffer severely as a result of rising summer temperatures and low water retention capacities in the soil. The effects of reduced summer precipitation and increased air temperatures are partially offset by the expected increased CO2 concentration. Therefore, the effects that changed climatic conditions have on crop production are sometimes less drastic in terms of crop yields. The greatest impact of climate change on land use is expected from increasing evapotranspiration and lower amounts of precipitation in the production of leachate. In addition to the expected mean changes, the occurrence of extreme weather conditions is key. Periods of drought in the growing season and heavy flooding as a result of extreme rainfall are to be expected. However, these events are very difficult or even impossible to predict. In addition to the effects that climate change will have on regional crop production, global changes will have a strong impact on world markets for agricultural products. Another consequence of climate change and population growth is a higher demand for agricultural products on world markets. This will lead to dramatic local land use changes and an intensification of agriculture that will transform existing crop production systems. The intensification caused by rising land and lease prices will primarily affect the maximization of the use of fertilizers and pesticides.