Theoretical foundations for the development of criteria for evaluating audience preferences in modern cinema

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to highlight the theoretical foundations for the development of criteria for evaluating audience preferences in modern cinema. The research methodology is based on theoretical analysis, synthesis and generalization of scientific sources on the research topic, and the comparative method. The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the author highlights the theoretical foundations of the methodology of criteria and variables for assessing the success and demand of modern films as a foundation for testing and developing a questionnaire to identify audience preferences. As a conclusion, the authors states that there is a need to pay attention to the phenomena of audience choice (for example, the "certainty effect", etc.); "flow experience" within the stage of watching a movie for its emotional perception by the audience. Considering the issues of statistics, assessment of the potential commercial success of a film production and the complex of factors affecting it, it is advisable to cite D. Kahneman's position. This researcher provides an argument for the value of simple formulas for forecasting, operating with a low number of basic criteria. Thus, this author emphasizes the importance of formulas that provide equal weight for each predictive factor, which is due to their indifference to the randomness associated with the organization of the sample. In the context of the statistics of the film business sector, the corresponding hypothesis will look like this: a model for evaluating the future success of projects in certain genres is able to provide a higher level of reliability compared to models that ignore genre originality. Thus, in the study of methods for predicting the commercial success of films, carried out by A.S. Tatarnikov, the great reliability of the predictive model using information on paintings of certain genres of entertainment (in particular, adventure films, comedies, etc.) was confirmed.