Hierarchical Epidemic Risk Modeling of Spreading New COVID-19 Coronavirus

Abstract

The subject of the research are a multi-level study of the territorial characteristics of emergency situations, analysis of operational information, and risk management of various origins. A topic model of the current COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic process have been developed in terms of reliability theory. The model is based on the methods of parametric hierarchical and variational modeling, which takes into account the similarity of exponential functions of the relationship between the parameters of the situation at different organizational levels.The objective of the work is to identify the characteristics of the reaction of the population of different countries to anti-epidemic measures of public risk management.The research methods are based on information technology for designing and approximating curves and surfaces with functions of various complexity, which is implemented by means of fractal parametric modeling of spatial objects and allows you to create new graphical confi gurations by varying the parameters and functions of their connections. Calculations are performed in variables that are biased relative to the environmental values, which makes it possible to take into account the territorial specifi cs of managing the parameters of the failure rate (risk of disease). In comparative statistical analysis, the advantage of this modeling is related to the relativity of reliability indicators, which makes it possible to eliminate country-specific features of epidemiological data collection. The complexity of hierarchical models is expressed in the multiplicity of embedding (superposition) of exponential functions. The model of the epidemic does not regulate the intensity of infection (disease risk), but reduces the acceptable risk of infection by organizational pressure on the magnitude of this risk. The effectiveness of the impact is assessed by the values of stable manageability indicators, which is individual for each territory. The Chinese authorities demonstrated high manageability of the population's behavior in the conditions of the beginning of the epidemic. The average manageability level is typical for Western countries with similar trends in the development of the pandemic. Russian society has shown low manageability with a high degree of state readiness to fight the pandemic.