Using Hazard and Vulnerability Indicators for the Risk Assessment of the Irkutsk Region Territories

Abstract

Irkutsk region in the Siberian region is classified as the most hazardous region with a large number of hazardous industrial facilities and large-scale damage zones. The most significant natural hazards are floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and freezing temperatures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the natural, technogenic, ecological, and complex risks of the territories of the Irkutsk region on the basis of hazard and vulnerability indicators. To assess the risk, an expert method is used based on the heuristic identification of vulnerability and hazard criteria, their expert assessment, definition of weight coefficients, and ranking. To determine the ranking, five hazard categories were identified based on “interval data statistics”. The risk is determined on the basis of a risk matrix that takes into account the vulnerability and hazard indices and allows one to assess both the hazard and the vulnerability of the territory. The following task has been solved: the analysis of the state reports on the state and environmental protection of the Irkutsk region; the selection of indicators of vulnerability for areas in the region and their expert evaluation; the development of vulnerability maps of the region; the definition of weighted composite indicators of hazard areas: natural, technogenic and ecological; the development of the hazard maps of the region; the calculation of natural, technogenic, ecological and integrated risk of areas and constructing the corresponding maps; making a ranking of the territories by the level of risk. The resulting risk maps of territories can be used for strategic planning and decision support to reduce and prevent the risk of territories with resource constraints. The application of the proposed approach allowed us to obtain a refined risk assessment of administrative areas (districts) of the Irkutsk region.