Development and validation of a predictive model for acute-on-chronic liver failure after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

Abstract

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a cause of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). AIM To investigate the risk factors of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and construct a prediction model. METHODS In total, 379 patients with decompensated cirrhosis treated with TIPS at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were selected as the training cohort, and 123 patients from Nanfang Hospital were included in the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors. The prediction model was established based on the Akaike information criterion. Internal and external validation were conducted to assess the performance of the model. RESULTS Age and total bilirubin (TBil) were independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS. We developed a prediction model comprising age, TBil, and serum sodium, which demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in both the training cohort and the external validation cohort. CONCLUSION Age and TBil are independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Our model showed satisfying predictive value.