Integrated assessment of the potential for cardiovascular prevention according to the screening results and its prognostic significance

Abstract

Aim. To evaluate the prognostic significance of the integrated assessment of the potential for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in regions based on the results of screening programs.Material and methods. We analyzed cardiovascular mortality for 2016- 2018 according to the data of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation and the Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics. Based on the results of pair correlation analysis, indicators were selected that directly or indirectly reflect the quality of CVD prevention as a part of screening. Of these, indicators reliably associated with the cardiovascular mortality rate were selected for calculating the integrated index for CVD prevention potential. Taking into account these data, regional integrated indices were calculated, the value of which was ranked from 1 (highest quality) to 0 (lowest quality). The prognostic significance of the integrated index was assessed by the regional standardized CVD mortality rates in the next 3 years. A Pearson correlation analysis was performed.Results. In regions with a low index, which characterized by lower early diagnosis rate of CVD and lower coverage of such patients with screening, significantly higher mortality from CVD in the next 3 years was observed (r=-0,72, p<0,001; r=-0,65, p<0,001; r=-0,62, p<0,001). The integrated index showed high informativeness regarding the potential of primary and secondary prevention of CVD in primary health care for each region of the Russian Federation. The integrated index, which includes 3 indicators of the screening results and 2 resource indicators, demonstrated high short- and medium-term prognostic significance as an indicator of screening quality.Conclusion. The proposed integrated index includes accessible and informative indicators characterizing the screening program as a preventive technology, and can be recommended for the prospective assessment of the effectiveness of CVD prevention in regions.