Potential of machine learning methods in operational risk stratification in patients with coronary artery disease scheduled for coronary bypass surgery

Abstract

Aim. To develop and evaluate the effectiveness of models for predicting mortality after coronary bypass surgery, obtained using machine learning analysis of preoperative data.Material and methods. As part of a cohort study, a retrospective prediction of in-hospital mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was performed in 2182 patients with stable coronary artery disease. Patients were divided into 2 following samples: learning (80%, n=1745) and training (20%, n=437). The initial ratio of surviving (n=2153) and deceased (n=29) patients in the total sample indicated a pronounced class imbalance, and therefore the resampling method was used in the training sample. Five machine learning (ML) algorithms were used to build predictive risk models: Logistic regression, Random Forrest, CatBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost. For each of these algorithms, cross-validation and hyperparameter search were performed on the training sample. As a result, five predictive models with the best parameters were obtained. The resulting predictive models were applied to the learning sample, after which their performance was compared in order to determine the most effective model.Results. Predictive models implemented on ensemble classifiers (CatBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost) showed better results compared to models based on logistic regression and random forest. The best quality metrics were obtained for CatBoost and LightGBM based models (Precision — 0,667, Recall — 0,333, F1-score — 0,444, ROC AUC — 0,666 for both models). There were following common high-ranking parameters for deciding on the outcome for both models: creatinine and blood glucose levels, left ventricular ejection fraction, age, critical stenosis (>70%) of carotid arteries and main lower limb arteries.Conclusion. Ensemble machine learning methods demonstrate higher predictive power compared to traditional methods such as logistic regression. The prognostic models obtained in the study for preoperative prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients referred for CABG can serve as a basis for developing systems to support medical decision-making in patients with coronary artery disease.