Navigating the Dynamics of Brent Crude Oil Prices: Factors, Trends, and Insights

Abstract

Accurate Brent Crude Oil price prediction is essential for informed decision-making and risk control in the global energy market. This paper examines the dynamics of Brent Crude Oil prices over the previous 35 years, utilizing predictive modelling techniques to project future prices and analyzing historical trends and relationships with the GDPs of major economies. The statistical methods used in this paper include the moving average and Pearson correlation coefficient. While correlation studies show significant positive links between Brent Crude Oil prices and the GDPs of major economies like China, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia, and the United States, historical data analysis reveals large price volatility. Highly accurate price forecasting using LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) modelling approaches provides detailed risk management and decision-making information in the global energy market. The application of the Neural Network and the ARIMA model shows an increase in the price of Brent crude oil in the next year, 2024. Identifying the importance of the Brent crude oil price forecast and its effect on the international market is highly needed. This paper thus might help to increase economic growth. These results highlight the importance of advanced modelling techniques and economic indicators in managing oil price changes and help make informed decisions in the energy industry.