Accident rate in Polish mining. Current status and forecast

Abstract

The article presents the analysis of accidents at work in the Polish mining industry in the period from 2010 to 2020 with forecasts for the next three years. The study consists of two parts. The first part deals with methods of analysing working conditions in the mining industry. A key element of the literature review is the econometric methods that have been used by researchers to analyse accidents at work in mining. In the empirical part (the second part of the paper), the authors present the results of their own econometric analysis. The authors use econometric models in predicting the indicator (W*) – total number of people injured in accidents per thousand employees. Testing classical econometric models, the authors obtained the best forecasts (based on the obtained forecast errors) in the Winters' model and the Brown's model. The accident at work in mining is an important topic for research because the branch of industry belongs to the branch with hard work. Health and safety in mines has a great importance for the sake of specific conditions in that kind of industry. Continuous analysis of accidents at work is necessary in evaluation of system effectiveness of health and safety system in all mines. Forecasting of accident at work can help miners to build safety in mines