Simulation of Varicella Zoster Virus Spread Process

Abstract

The article focuses on the development and implementation of a simulation model that predicts the spread of chickenpox in a population. It addresses issues related to strategic planning and management of vaccination against the Varicella Zoster virus, with a specific focus on the Altai Krai. The article presents the results of economic efficiency calculations for a single vaccination program targeting 6-year-old children. The simulation model utilizes a computational algorithm to predict the dynamics of the spread of chickenpox. The study examines various types of vaccination programs for children and compares the simulation results with real medical data from the Altai Krai. Statistical data on the incidence of chickenpox is used to inform the model. The study identifies optimal vaccination parameters and strategies for the Altai Krai through testing the simulation model. The model is implemented using Python programming language and graphically visualizes the virus's spread for different types of vaccination programs and in the absence of vaccination.