BINARY METHOD OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF INFECTIOUS INCIDENCE

Abstract

Article purpose. To present the binary method of the epidemiological analysis of infectious incidence recommended for the characteristic of factors of social-and-ecological systems her defining. Materials and methods. The method of the binary analysis is developed on the basis of the methods of complex studying of epidemic process used in domestic epidemiology which have received the name “retrospective epidemiological analysis of incidence”. For demonstration long-term and annual dynamics of incidence of chicken pox in Vladivostok from 1997 to 2009 is used. The received results. In the binary analysis consecutive division of cumulative incidence into components is carried out, in the beginning, on the leading approaches characterizing biological, social and natural essence of epidemic process and then, by additional criteria, allows to create the statistical model of the studied object suitable for a research of the global phenomena. From biological factors - participation and a role of the infectious and immunological mechanism. Among natural factors - seasonal and year-round elements; social factors - casual and natural manifestations. In Vladivostok from 1997 to 2009 the share of periodic incidence has made 16,7%, basic incidence - 83,3%. Basic incidence was formed due to year-round incidence (17,8%) and seasonal, the main share. In general 82,2% are the share of seasonal incidence and, it forms both the most part of basic incidence, and all periodic incidence. Share of random factors in incidence not of a bike (7,3%). Incidence is formed by mainly natural factors - 92,7%. Conclusion. Use of a binary method has allowed to create logical model of development of epidemic process at chicken pox in Vladivostok. The accounting of a role of the leading factors will be useful to optimization of epidemiological surveillance. The technique of studying of structural elements of the social-and-ecological systems defining formation of incidence of the population is presented in article. Biological factors are the participation and the role of the infectious and immunological mechanism. Natural factors are seasonal and year-round elements; social factors are casual and natural manifestations.