Kredyty hipoteczne o stałej oraz okresowo stałej stopie procentowej – ocena dotychczasowej polityki regulacyjnej oraz rekomendacje dla niej

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the channels of impact of the growing volume of fixed‑rate or periodically fixed‑rate mortgages on stability of the banking sector, which may be threatened by the materialisation of credit and legal risks associated with the mortgage loan portfolio and to formulate recommendations for regulatory policy for banks offering mortgages. Research method – The method used was that of analysing statistical data and inferring from it, a critical analysis of the literature on the subject and a positive economic analysis of the law. Results – Fixed‑rate and periodically fixed‑rate mortgage lending by banks does not necessarily contribute to stability of the banking sector, and consequently also financial stability. This is because, on the one hand, in an environment of rising interest rates, a portfolio of fixed‑rate mortgages generates lower credit risk, while, on the other hand, prepayments made in an environment of falling interest rates have a negative impact on banks’ performance. On the top of that the offer of periodically fixed‑rate loans raises the risk of a spike in borrowers’ instalments. In relation with that regulatory policy should consider the current and expected level of interest rates, taking into account the type of fixed rate, the total cost of the mortgage over its lifetime and the risk of payment spikes that a borrower using a periodically fixed rate loan may experience. In addition, the regulatory authorities can be expected to harmonise the reporting obligations of loan companies so that banks’ assessment of creditworthiness includes an analysis of all borrowers’ obligations and behavioural aspects arising from an analysis of the track record of relationships with loan firms. Another challenge is the need to harmonise bank standards on the sources of income taken into account in the creditworthiness assessment. It is up to supervisory regulation to determine whether cost‑reducing, more predictable fixed‑rate mortgages will contribute to financial stability. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – The paper provides recommendations for regulatory policy on the offering of fixed or periodically fixed‑rate mortgages by banks, taking into account macroeconomic and idiosyncratic factors. It is the first study aimed at identifying future risks of inadequacy between the fixed‑rate‑based structure of new mortgage lending and expectations of inflation and changes in market interest rates.